报告 第一太平戴维斯研究部 中国写字楼—2021 年 7 月 大湾区甲级写字楼指数 佛山 中山 东莞 大湾区甲级写字楼指数 香港 广州 定义 & 说明 背景 第一太平戴维斯大湾区甲级写字楼指数旨在为区域 内甲级写字楼市场参与者，如投资者、开发商、业 主和企业租户等，提供可靠的参考性指标以掌握大 湾区内各个城市甲级写字楼市场的变动。 大湾区数据取样范围 大湾区甲级写字楼研究地理范围界定为大湾区内地 九个城市以及香港特别行政区，其中根据城市发展 差异而选定不同的有效研究时间跨度。香港、深圳、 广州研究时间自 2009 年至今；其它七个内地城市 研究时间自 2013 年至今。澳门暂未被纳入取样范围。 租金指数 租金指数在可比基础上反映过去六个月各城市写字 楼市场租金的变化趋势。 价格指数 价格指数在可比基础上反映过去六个月各城市写字 楼市场售价的变化趋势。 甲级写字楼市场总租用成本 总租用成本包含净有效租金、物业管理费以及相关 税费等。 更新周期 大湾区甲级写字楼指数于 2019 年 10 月首次发布， 并定期进行半年度更新。 2 savills.com.cn/research 大湾区甲级写字楼指数 摘要 2021 年上半年，大湾区甲级写字楼市场始现复苏之势。期内， 随着区域内甲级写字楼物业租金指数降幅持续收窄（本期仅 环比下降 1.6%）、平均售价指数再度上涨（本期环比微涨 0.2%），市场参与者信心普遍提高。 上半年，区域新增供应规模几乎恢复至疫情前水平。期末， 大湾区甲级写字楼物业市场总存量上升至 3,039.2 万平方米， 环比扩容 5.0%、同比扩容 9.0%。 期内，市场租赁需求亦有所回暖。十个大湾区城市中有七城 平均空置率录得环比下降；区域半年度净吸纳量回升至 97.2 万平方米。但东莞、珠海和佛山仍面临供应过剩、需求增长 动能不足等严峻考验。因此，2021 年上半年大湾区甲级写字 楼平均空置率仍环比上升 0.6 个百分点、同比上升 2.2 个百分 点至 21.2%。 在疫情扰乱市场运行及多城持续处于供过于求的双重影响下， 大湾区多数业主仍愿为优质租户继续提供财务优惠。鉴于此， 包 括 香 港（-2.2%）、 深 圳（-2.2%）、 广 州（-1.0%） 在 内 的七个城市的写字楼总租用成本均环比下降。而珠海、江门、 东莞总租用成本则在高品质项目入市的带动下分别环比上升 1.7%、1.3% 和 1.1%。 2021 年上半年，除江门外，包括香港、广州、深圳、佛山等 在内的九个大湾区城市均进入租金下降末期阶段，大湾区甲 级写字楼租金表现周期分布较去年同期显著改善。 savills.com.cn/research 3 大湾区甲级写字楼指数 1H/2009=100 / 1H/2013=100 大湾区甲级写字楼指数 大湾区甲级写字楼租金指数（1H/2009-1H/2021） 200 180 160 140 120 100 80 1H 2H 1H 2H 1H 2H 1H 2H 1H 2H 1H 2H 1H 2H 1H 2H 1H 2H 1H 2H 1H 2H 1H 2H 1H 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 香港 惠州 大湾区 广州 肇庆 注：香港、深圳及广州租金指数始于 2009 年，其它城市始于 2013 年 来源：第一太平戴维斯研究部，2021 深圳 佛山 中山 江门 东莞 珠海 1H/2009=100 / 1H/2013=100 大湾区甲级写字楼价格指数（1H/2009-1H/2021） 270 240 210 180 150 120 90 1H 2H 1H 2H 1H 2H 1H 2H 1H 2H 1H 2H 1H 2H 1H 2H 1H 2H 1H 2H 1H 2H 1H 2H 1H 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 香港 惠州 大湾区 广州 肇庆 深圳 佛山 中山 江门 东莞 珠海 注：香港、深圳及广州价格指数始于 2009 年，其它城市始于 2013 年 来源：第一太平戴维斯研究部，2021 4 savills.com.cn/research 大湾区甲级写字楼指数 2020 年，新冠肺炎疫情席卷全球，大湾区写字楼市场也受到影响。年初，大湾区内众企 业纷纷推迟搬迁或扩张计划。随后，在 2020 年下半年及 2021 年上半年，上述受抑制的租 赁需求陆续得以释放。在多方面积极因素综合影响下，市场参与者的信心有所提振，大湾 区甲级写字楼市场始现复苏之势，并在区域租金指数降幅收窄和价格指数环比上升中得以 体现。 租金指数 截至 2021 年上半年，大湾区甲级写字楼租金指数环比下降 1.6% 至 147.6，降幅较 2020 年下半年收窄 4.0 个百分点。 2021 年上半年，受不少跨国公司持续实施或延长居家办公机制的影响，香港写字楼租赁需 求明显下降，且以租金相对较高的核心商务区尤甚。相较之下，内资企业则成为疫情期间 市场租赁需求的主要来源，并在核心商务区承租了相当规模的办公面积。整体而言，有限 的需求增长令香港写字楼市场竞争仍趋激烈，租金指数因此继续环比下跌 3.1% 至 147.2。 深圳写字楼市场因近年持续存在的供过于求问题而长期承压，以价换量策略继续成为上半 年的市场常态。自 2018 年上半年以来，深圳写字楼租金指数持续下行。此后，由于市场 中的大部分不利影响因素已被消化，至 2021 年上半年，租金指数近乎触底，仅环比微降 0.9% 至 138.5。 鉴于 2021 年广州预计有大量新增供应入市，同时许多国企和私企对办公成本预算控制更 趋严格，广州写字楼市场众业主对租金预期仍保持谨慎，并继续采取以价换量策略以挽留 或吸引租户从而实现去化目标。因此，广州租金指数环比下跌 1.6% 至 144.6。 2021 年上半年，东莞、珠海、惠州三城的写字楼租金指数均录得低于 1.0% 的环比降幅。 这主要得益于上述城市兼具毗邻澳门、深圳的区位优势以及更具性价比的租金水平，从而 吸引了许多中小企业进驻及扩张。 后疫情时期，江门写字楼市场中部分项目租金已回升至既往水平，该变化显著带动期内整 体市场租金水平回升。得益于此，2021 年上半年，江门成为大湾区唯一录得租金上涨的城市。 相较之下，因本地产业结构发展对市场复苏支撑有限，肇庆写字楼市场租赁需求仍呈疲软 态势。期内，全市租金指数环比下跌 4.3% 至 90.3。 价格指数 2021 年上半年，大湾区甲级写字楼价格指数环比小幅上升 0.2% 至 194.0。价格指数的上 升一定程度上反映出大湾区写字楼投资市场经受住了疫情的考验。 广州写字楼投资市场，特别是散售市场表现持续活跃。由于广州的空置率在大湾区中最低， 加之收益率相对稳定，因此广州写字楼资产表现韧性十足。此外，在宏观经济复苏的背景下， 业主对自身现金流的担忧逐渐减少，令其重振信心。鉴于此，广州写字楼价格指数在经历 连续四次环比下降后，于 2021 年上半年环比上升 1.7% 至 127.5，录得区域最大升幅。 深圳甲级写字楼市场对供过于求的持续担忧不可避免地冲淡了经济反弹所带来的积极情 绪。深圳的业主在价格谈判中继续表现出极大的灵活性，从而导致价格指数环比下跌 5.2% 至 179.7，系大湾区内最大环比跌幅。 近年来，在佛山、中山、东莞等以制造业为主导的重要节点城市，写字楼市场投资者背景 日趋多元化，除个人买家外，亦包括有许多本地制造业企业。大部分制造业企业在疫情中 仍具有相对稳定的现金流能力，因此其出售资产的意愿往往较低。鉴于此，大湾区七个重 要节点城市中有五城的价格指数环比录得上升，如佛山（+0.9%）、珠海（+0.7%）、中 山（+0.7%）、东莞（+0.1%）等。 savills.com.cn/research 5 大湾区甲级写字楼指数 大湾区城市地区生产总值及产业结构分析 人民币亿元 大湾区城市地区生产总值（Q1/2021） 10,500 9,000 28% 23% 7,500 18% 6,000 13% 4,500 8% 3,000 3% 1,500 -2% 0 -7% 上海 北京 深圳 广州 香港 佛山 东莞 惠州 珠海 中山 江门 肇庆 澳门 国内生产总值（左轴） 增长率（右轴） 注：北京、上海两市数据仅作对比参考使用，香港和澳门 GDP 根据当季季末汇率折算为人民币 来源：各市统计局、香港政府统计处、澳门统计暨普查局，第一太平戴维斯整理，2021 大湾区城市产业结构分布（Q1/2021） 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% 澳门 香港 北京 上海 广州 深圳 珠海 江门 中山 东莞 肇庆 惠州 佛山 第三产业占比 第二产业占比 第一产业占比 注：北京、上海两市数据仅作对比参考使用，香港和澳门 GDP 根据当季季末汇率折算为人民币。 来源：各市统计局、香港政府统计处、澳门统计暨普查局，第一太平戴维斯整理，2021 6 savills.com.cn/research 大湾区甲级写字楼指数 大湾区甲级写字楼市场供需分析 万平方米 大湾区甲级写字楼现有存量及空置率（1H/2021） 900 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 深圳 香港 广州 来源：第一太平戴维斯研究部，2021 珠海 东莞 现有存量 ( 左轴 ) 佛山 惠州 空置率 ( 右轴 ) 中山 江门 肇庆 50% 44% 38% 32% 26% 20% 14% 8% 2% -4% 自 2020 年下半年以来，大湾区内地城市新项目入市节奏逐步恢复。2021 年上半年，大湾区甲级写字楼市场新增供应达 144.9 万 平方米，近乎达到疫情前水平。区域内甲级写字楼市场总存量增至 3,039.2 万平方米，环比扩容 5.0%、同比扩容 9.0%。深圳、香 港和广州总存量继续占据主导地位，合计占区域总存量的 74.4%，且深圳甲级写字楼存量已超越香港居大湾区之首。 总体而言，大湾区写字楼市场租赁需求在后疫情时期有所回升。2021 年上半年，有七城空置率录得环比下降；大湾区半年度总净 吸纳量回升至 97.2 万平方米，分别为去年上、下半年的 3.7 倍和 2.4 倍。但东莞、珠海和佛山仍面临供应过剩、需求增长动能不 足等问题。整体而言，2021 年上半年，大湾区甲级写字楼平均空置率环比上升 0.6 个百分点、同比上升 2.2 个百分点至 21.2%。 香港 由于全球经济环境不确定性尚存以及自疫情爆发以来居家 办公政策的实施，香港内众多金融机构，开始缩减其在香 港的办公空间。 相比之下，自 2020 年以来，内资企业则 展现出强劲的租赁需求并成为需求增长的主要动力，由其 新增写字楼租赁面积在 2020 年同比增长 4.0% 可见一斑。 2021 年上半年，尽管不同类型企业租赁需求表现各异，但 全市空置率仍环比上升 0.6 个百分点至 8.9%。 广州 开年以来，广州写字楼租赁市场强势反弹，市场持续承接 源自多个行业持续增长的新设及扩张需求。2021 年上半年， TMT 巨头、内外资金融机构、国内领先的零售和贸易公司 都对在广州，承租写字楼表现出强烈意愿。 尽管市场在六 月份再次受到小规模疫情爆发的波及，但全市上半年净吸 纳量仍达到近三年峰值，录得 26.4 万平方米。期末，全市 平均空置率环比下降 0.5 个百分点至 8.2%，为大湾区最低。 深圳 2021 年上半年，在本地经济迅速复苏、新经济快速发展的 支撑下，深圳甲级写字楼市场租赁需求保持畅旺。2021 年 上半年，全市半年度净吸纳量因此从 2020 年下半年的 36.9 万平方米上升至后疫情时期新高（44.7 万平方米），对大 湾区整体市场去化的贡献高达 46.0% 。TMT、金融、专业 服务、零售与贸易行业依旧是本地租赁需求的主要增长点。 截至 2021 年上半年，全市平均空置率环比下降 1.5 个百分 点至 26.4%。 佛山 佛山地区生产总值于 2020 年首次突破万亿人民币，制造业 对本地经济的贡献仍最显著。过去由于本地制造业企业更 倾向于在工厂内设立办公室，这在一定程度上塑造了佛山 市写字楼市场“以金融和房地产企业为主导”的租户组合 特点。但近年来，部分本地制造企业开始选择将其总部搬 迁或设立于甲级写字楼中，从而吸引更多高素质的员工， 这为佛山甲级写字楼租赁市场注入了一定的新增需求。截 至 2021 年上半年，得益于新兴需求的出现及其它需求的轻 微回升，全市空置率环比微降 0.7 个百分点至 36.9%。 savills.com.cn/research 7 大湾区甲级写字楼指数 大湾区甲级写字楼市场总租用成本分析 大湾区甲级写字楼总租用成本（1H/2021） 香港 北京 上海 深圳 广州 珠海 佛山 中山 东莞 惠州 江门 肇庆 0 150 300 450 600 750 人民币每平方米每月 注：北京、上海两市数据仅作对比参考使用；香港总租用成本根据当季季末汇率折算为人民币 来源：第一太平戴维斯研究部，2021 大湾区甲级写字楼总租用成本细分（1H/2021） 香港 674.2 557.0 44.6 72.7 东莞 66.4 57.0 已含 9.4 深圳 211.3 183.6 已含 27.6 佛山 72.6 54.6 已含 18.0 广州 194.2 163.6 已含 30.7 惠州 63.9 57.4 已含 6.5 珠海 114.6 93.2 已含 21.4 江门 55.7 46.1 已含 9.6 中山 71.9 62.8 已含 9.2 肇庆 45.4 40.2 已含 5.3 净有效租金 ( 人民币每平方米每月 ) 相关税费 ( 人民币每平方米每月 ) 物业管理费 ( 人民币每平方米每月 ) 北京 375.7 341.3 已含 34.4 上海 258.8 223.5 已含 35.3 注：总租用成本包括净有效租金、相关税费及物业管理费；北京、上海两市数据仅作对比参考使用；香港总租用成本根据当季季末汇率折算为人民币 来源：第一太平戴维斯研究部，2021 大湾区甲级写字楼总租用成本环比变化 (1H/2021) 珠海 江门 东莞 惠州 广州 佛山 中山 香港 深圳 肇庆 -4% -3% -2% -1% 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 来源：第一太平戴维斯研究部，2021 8 savills.com.cn/research 大湾区甲级写字楼指数 人民币每平方米每月 大湾区甲级写字楼总租用成本（1H/2009 - 1H/2021） 900 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 1H 2H 1H 2H 1H 2H 1H 2H 1H 2H 1H 2H 1H 2H 1H 2H 1H 2H 1H 2H 1H 2H 1H 2H 1H 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 香港 惠州 广州 肇庆 注：香港总租用成本根据当季季末汇率折算为人民币 来源：第一太平戴维斯研究部，2021 深圳 佛山 中山 江门 东莞 珠海 在疫情持续的背景下，大湾区多数业主皆愿为优质租户提供更大财务优惠力度，包括提供更长的免租期、适度减租等，以 维持目标入驻率。 而对租户而言，当前则是重新评估租用成本预算、优化选址方案等租赁策略调整的良好时机。 2021 年上半年，有七个城市的总租用成本下降。其中，香港、深圳、广州总租用成本分别环比下降 2.2%、2.2% 和 1.0%。 相较之下，得益于本地积极的经济发展前景和越来越多优质楼宇入市的带动作用，珠海、江门、东莞三个城市的总租用成 本分别环比增长 1.7%、1.3% 和 1.1%。 全球经济不确定性犹存，租户成本节约意愿持续 鉴于全球市场仍存在诸多不确定性，且世界经济尚在探寻复苏之路，大湾区内许多企业仍在持续通过降低租金预算、缩减 租赁面积等方式优化成本控制方案并整合内部资源。疫情尚在持续，大湾区经济复苏亦面临诸多不稳定因素。 例如，5 月 至 6 月期间，广州、深圳、佛山、东莞小规模疫情爆发再次使市场复苏短暂停滞。 因此，租户在选址过程中仍趋向持谨慎 避险情绪，并更青睐相对质优价低的写字楼物业。 优质租户降租更具优势 疫情下，许多业主开始意识到租户组合管理对于提高资产表现的重要意义，并对其项目租户品质把关愈发严格。尽管多数 业主继续采用以价换量的租金策略，但他们更倾向于为优质租户，如头部企业、独角兽公司等，提供更灵活的洽谈空间和 租金优惠。 香港与其大湾区城市的总租用成本差距逐渐缩小 2021 年上半年，尽管香港写字楼市场总租用成本仍为区域最高，但自 2019 年以来，香港租金水平的持续下降导致了其与 其它内地城市总租用成本差距的逐渐缩小。在疫情影响下，上半年香港总租用成本比深圳及肇庆分别高 3.2 倍 及 14.8 倍， 差距已较两年前 3.6 倍 及 16 .0 倍收窄。但从积极的层面来看，香港标杆写字楼项目租用成本仍然在大湾区乃至亚太地区处 于领先地位。 新兴商务区成为高性价比热门之选 当前，市场中许多企业在选址过程中皆希望兼顾保障办公品质与实现租金成本节约的双重目标，因此，新兴商务区，特别 在核心城市中，逐步成为一些企业的理想之选。这一趋势在深圳的前海、广州的琶洲两新兴商务区中得到充分印证。2021 年上半年，上述二者的租赁需求显著增加，净吸纳量均超过 10 万平方米。香港的西九龙也是另一佐证，鉴于其相对较低的 租金水平以及更为稳定的市场表现，2021 年上半年，该片区内企业倒闭退租及缩减租赁面积的情况明显少于核心商务区。 savills.com.cn/research 9 大湾区甲级写字楼指数 大湾区甲级写字楼市场总租用成本分析 上升末期 大湾区甲级写字楼租金表现周期（1H/2021） 香港 广州 深圳 珠海 东莞 佛山 中山 惠州 肇庆 下降初期 下降末期 江门 上升初期 下降末期 2021 年上半年，主要得益于宏观经济的快速复苏，除江门 外，在所监测的十个城市中，有九个城市均进入下降末期 市场阶段，区域市场周期分布较去年同期显著改善。虽然 多城仍面临供过于求、租金增长疲软等挑战，但多数写字 楼业主情绪已有所改善，租金开始逐渐企稳。 上升初期 与其它城市不同，江门是大湾区唯一进入上升初期的城市。 新项目楼宇品质提高、本地经济复苏、写字楼市场租赁需 求回升对市场上升均有助力。 江门 肇庆 惠州 珠海 深圳 10 savills.com.cn/research 大湾区甲级写字楼指数 展望 中国和大湾区的经济前景预计保持谨慎乐观。 根据国家统计局及中国科学院相关数据，2020 年尽管受疫 情冲击，中国（不含香港和澳门）GDP 增速仍达 2.3%，且预计于 2021 年达到 8.5%。同时，2020 年大 湾区的 GDP 增速亦达 3%，且从 2020 年至 2030 年，区域 GDP 预计增长 1.8 倍。尽管第二季度广州、深圳、 东莞、佛山等多个地区出现了小规模疫情爆发，但在中国经济强劲复苏、大湾区新经济快速发展的支持下， 经济复苏格局预计不受干扰。 大湾区写字楼市场整体租赁及买卖需求预计持续增长。尽管这在很大程度上有望为租赁市场提供支持， 但鉴于下半年市场仍将有相当规模的供应入市，供过于求局面仍将是甲级写字楼市场上的主要矛盾，同 时大湾区写字楼租金指数将继续小幅下降。 积极的经济环境以及内地投资活动的复苏显著提振众业主的信心，进而推动写字楼物业售价的增长。未来， 随着投资问询及项目考察量的持续增长，这一趋势将进一步巩固，大湾区价格指数有望在未来六个月保 持上升趋势。 联系我们 谢靖宇 Carlby Xie 第一太平戴维斯华南区市场研究部 负责人、董事 TEL: +8620 3665 4874 E-mail: carlby.xie@savills.com.cn 黎青山 Sam Lai 第一太平戴维斯华南区商业楼宇部 负责人、高级董事 TEL: +8620 3665 4830 E-mail: sam.lai@savills.com.cn savills.com.cn/research 11 GLOBAL HEADQUARTERS 全球总部 Savills – London 第一太平戴维斯 伦敦 Mark Ridley Group Chief Executive Officer 第一太平戴维斯全球首席执行官 Tel: 44 020 7499 8644 E-mail: mridley@savills.com CHINA 中国 Savills – China 第一太平戴维斯 中国 Siu Wing Chu 朱兆荣 Chief Executive Officer, China 第一太平戴维斯中国区首席执行官 Tel: 86 21 6391 6688 E-mail: siuwing.chu@savills.com.cn Savills – Shanghai 第一太平戴维斯 上海 Siu Wing Chu 朱兆荣 Chief Executive Officer, China 第一太平戴维斯中国区首席执行官 Tel: 86 21 6391 6688 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SPOTLIGHT Savills Research China Office - July 2021 The Greater Bay Area Grade A Office Index Foshan Zhongshan The Greater Bay Area Grade A Office Index Dongguan Hong Kong Guangzhou INTRODUCTION & GLOSSARY Background Savills’ Greater Bay Area Grade A Office Index, hereinafter referred to as the GBA Grade A Office Index, aims to provide market players - investors, developers, landlords and office occupiers, with a reliable benchmark for the GBA office markets. Rental Index The rental index reflects the change in rents over a six month period of a basket of properties on a like-for-like basis. Sampling, Timing & Delimitation The report covers nine mainland cities and Hong Kong within the GBA, selecting different base years according to each city’s development record. Hong Kong, Shenzhen and Guangzhou have the base year of 2009, while the other cities have the base year of 2013. Macau is temporarily omitted from the report. Price Index The price index reflects the change in price over a six month period of a basket of properties on a like-for-like basis. Total Occupancy Cost The total occupancy cost includes the net effective rent, property management fees and related taxes. Frequency of Update The GBA Grade A Office Index was first published in October 2019 and is updated on a semi-annual basis. 2 savills.com.cn/research The Greater Bay Area Grade A Office Index KEY FINDINGS The GBA Grade A office market appeared to be on its way to recovery in 1H/2021. Many market players were increasingly confident with rental decreases slowing (down just 1.6% half-onhalf(HoH)), and prices once again rising (up 0.2% HoH) The pace of projects completions almost recovered to pre-COVID levels. Total GBA Grade A office stock therefore increased to 30.4 million sq m by the end 1H/2021, up 5.0% HoH and 9.0% year-onyear (YoY). Leasing demand also picked up, with seven out of ten cities recording a decrease in vacancy rate in 1H/2021 and take-up totalling 972,000 sq m. However, Dongguan, Zhuhai and Foshan still faced with oversupply and weak demand. The regional vacancy rate consequently increased 0.6 of a ppt in 1H/2021 to 21.2% and up 2.2 ppts YoY. Most landlords remained willing to extend incentives to qualified tenants. This is not only because of the business disruption caused by the pandemic but also the lingering oversupply issue in many cities. Total occupancy costs fell in seven out of ten cities within the GBA, including Hong Kong, Shenzhen and Guangzhou, down 2.2%, 2.2% and 1.0% in 1H/2021, respectively. Zhuhai, Jiangmen and Dongguan witnessed increases of 1.7%, 1.3% and 1.1% thanks to new completions of superior quality. Nine out of 10 GBA cities, including Hong Kong, Guangzhou, Shenzhen and Foshan, etc entered the late downswing cycle in 1H/2021, except for Jiangmen. This was a notable improvement, compared to 1H/2020. savills.com.cn/research 3 The Greater Bay Area Grade A Office Index 1H/2009=100 / 1H/2013=100 The Greater Bay Area Grade A Office Index GBA Grade A Office Rental Index, 1H/2009 - 1H/2021 200 180 160 140 120 100 80 1H 2H 1H 2H 1H 2H 1H 2H 1H 2H 1H 2H 1H 2H 1H 2H 1H 2H 1H 2H 1H 2H 1H 2H 1H 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Hong Kong Huizhou GBA Guangzhou Zhaoqing Shenzhen Foshan Zhongshan Jiangmen Dongguan Zhuhai Note: The calculation of the indices for Hong Kong, Shenzhen and Guangzhou starts from 2009. Others start from 2013. Source: Savills Research, 2021 1H/2009=100 / 1H/2013=100 GBA Grade A Office Price Index, 1H/2009 - 1H/2021 270 240 210 180 150 120 90 1H 2H 1H 2H 1H 2H 1H 2H 1H 2H 1H 2H 1H 2H 1H 2H 1H 2H 1H 2H 1H 2H 1H 2H 1H 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Hong Kong Huizhou GBA Guangzhou Zhaoqing Shenzhen Foshan Zhongshan Jiangmen Note: The calculation of the indices for Hong Kong, Shenzhen and Guangzhou starts from 2009. Others start from 2013. Source: Savills Research, 2021 Dongguan Zhuhai 4 savills.com.cn/research The Greater Bay Area Grade A Office Index The impact of COVID-19 has swept across the globe in all aspects, including the GBA Grade A office market. In 1H/2020, many enterprises in the GBA postponed their office relocations or expansions, producing pent-up demand that was collectively released in the 2H/2020 and 1H/2021. Benefited from a series of positive impacts, market players' confidence picked up amid the COVID-19 pandemic. The GBA Grade A office market, therefore, appeared to be on its way to recovery, as reflected in the smaller HoH decrement in the GBA rental index and the HoH uptick in the GBA price index by the end of 1H/2021. Rental Index By the end of 1H/2021, the GBA Grade A office rental index fell by 1.6% HoH to 147.6, with the decrement being 4.0 ppts smaller than that in 2H/2020. In 1H/2021, Work-From-Home policies continued to be implemented or extended by many MNCs in Hong Kong, which subdued the demand for office space markedly. Nonetheless, Chinese companies became the major source of the leasing demand in the locality, which took up considerable space in core areas during the pandemic period. Overall, the limited increase in demand resulted in a rather competitive market, leading to a further drop in the Hong Kong rental index, down 3.1% HoH to 147.2. Shenzhen’s office property market was under the mounting pressure of the long-existing oversupply issue in recent years. Echoing this, the leasing strategy of rental concessions in exchange for higher occupancy became the norm among many landlords in the market during 1H/2021. Shenzhen’s rental index has remained on a downswing since 1H/2018, however, the city’s rental index decreased marginally HoH by 0.9% to 138.5, which appeared to bottom out as most of the unfavourable notes of the market have been priced in. In consideration of the influx of new supply in 2021 and the budget control requirements among many SOEs and private enterprises, most landlords in the Guangzhou office market remained prudent in retaining or attracting tenants with lower rents trading for higher market digestion as part of their ongoing leasing strategies. The Guangzhou rental index decreased by 1.6% HoH to 144.6 as a result. Dongguan, Zhuhai and Huizhou, saw an HoH rental decrease below 1% in 1H/2021. These cities enjoyed the benefits of their proximity to core cities such as Shenzhen and Macau and highlighted their comparable advantages in lower rentals, thus attracting many small-to medium-sized enterprises to move in and expand. Jiangmen was the only GBA city that recorded a rental increase in 1H/2021 as a few projects reverted rents to the norm after a slump of 2020. By contrast, the office leasing demand in Zhaoqing remained fragile due to the drawbacks of the city’s economic structure and its limited support to market recovery. Its rental index plummeted by 4.3% HoH to 90.3. Price Index The GBA Grade A office price index edged up by 0.2% HoH to 194.0 by the end of 1H/2021, implying that the office investment market appeared to have successfully weathered the COVID-19 storm. The office investment market in Guangzhou continued to be active, particularly in the strata-title sales market. The asset performance in Guangzhou’s office market has proved relatively resilient in light of the lowest average vacancy rate among its peers in the GBA and its comparably stable yield expectations. In addition, many landlords’ confidence was restored due to fewer worries about their personal liquidity conditions on the back of the economic recovery. The Guangzhou price index rose by 1.7% HoH to 127.5 in 1H/2021 after four conservative HoH declines and posted the best increment among all GBA cities. The oversupply concerns lingering in Shenzhen’s Grade A office market inevitably diluted the positive sentiment brought by the economic rebound. Shenzhen’s landlords continued to show great flexibility in price negotiation and correction in the office investment markets, which led the price index to decrease by 5.2% HoH to 179.7—the most significant HoH decrease among all GBA cities. Cities such as Foshan, Zhongshan and Dongguan are manufacturing dependent, indicating a more diversified office investor profile, with not only individuals but also many local manufacturers. As many manufacturers qualified with relatively stable cashflows amid the COVID-19 pandemic their willingness to sell the asset was less apparent in 1H/2021. Given this, five out of seven GBA key node cities witnessed an HoH price uptick, such as Foshan (+0.9%), Zhuhai (+0.7%), Zhongshan (+0.7%), Dongguan (+0.1%) and others. savills.com.cn/research 5 The Greater Bay Area Grade A Office Index The Greater Bay Area GDP & Economic Structure By City RMB billion GDP and YoY Change By City, Q1/2021 1,050 900 28% 23% 750 18% 600 13% 450 8% 300 3% 150 -2% 0 Shanghai Beijing Shenzhen Guangzhou Hong Kong Foshan Dongguan Huizhou Zhuhai Zhongshan Jiangmen Zhaoqing Macau -7% GDP (LHS) YoY Growth (RHS) Note: Beijing and Shanghai’s data is presented for reference; Hong Kong and Macau's GDP has been calculated under the exchange rate as of March 2021. Source: Local Bureau of Statistics, Census and Statistics Department, HKSAR, Statistics and Census Service, Macau SAR, Savills Research, 2021 100% Economic Structure Comparison By City, Q1/2021 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% Macau Hong Kong Beijing Shanghai Guangzhou Shenzhen Zhuhai Jiangmen Zhongshan Dongguan Zhaoqing Huizhou Foshan Tertiary Industry Secondary Industry Primary Industry Note: Beijing and Shanghai’s data is presented for reference; Hong Kong and Macau's GDP has been calculated under the exchange rate as of March 2021. Source: Local Bureau of Statistics, Census and Statistics Department, HKSAR, Statistics and Census Service, Macau SAR, Savills Research, 2021 6 savills.com.cn/research The Greater Bay Area Grade A Office Index The Greater Bay Area Grade A Office Market Supply & Demand Analysis million sq m Stock and Vacancy Rate By City, 1H/2021 9.0 8.0 7.0 6.0 5.0 4.0 3.0 2.0 1.0 0.0 Shenzhen Hong Kong Guangzhou Zhuhai Dongguan Source: Savills Research, 2021 Existing Stock (LHS) Foshan Huizhou Zhongshan Vacancy Rate (RHS) Jiangmen 50% 44% 38% 32% 26% 20% 14% 8% 2% -4% Zhaoqing Developers in the GBA (except for Hong Kong) gradually resumed their pace of completing new supply since 2H/2020. In 1H/2021, the regional total new supply reached 1.4 million sq m, almost recovering to the pre-COVID level. With these new injections, the total stock of the regional Grade A office property market increased to 30.4 million sq m, expanding by 5.0% HoH and 9.0% YoY. Among all these ten cities, Shenzhen, Hong Kong and Guangzhou continued to dominate the market share by collectively taking up 74.4% of regional total stock. Meanwhile, Shenzhen has exceeded Hong Kong to rank first in the GBA in terms of the citywide total stock. Overall, the regional office leasing demand has shown some recovery during the post-pandemic period, with seven out of ten cities recording a HoH decrease in vacancy rate in 1H/2021 and the regional semi-annual net take-up increasing to 972,000 sq m, 3.7 and 2.4 times higher than that of the 1H/2020 and 2H/2020, respectively. However, oversupply situation continued in Dongguan, Zhuhai and Foshan due to the relatively fragile momentum in leasing demand in these cities. Collectively, the regional average vacancy rate increased by 0.6 of a ppt HoH and 2.2 ppts YoY to 21.2% by the end of 1H/2021. Hong Kong Due to the uncertainty of the global economic environment and the implementation of Work-From-Home policies since the outbreak of COVID-19, many financial institutions began to downsize their working space in Hong Kong. By contrast, Chinese companies showed strong leasing demand and became the demand driver since 2020, evidenced by a 4.0% YoY increase in new lettings from Chinese companies. While the performance of leasing demand from different companies was mixed, the citywide vacancy rate increased by 0.6 of a ppt HoH to 8.9% by the end of 1H/2021. Shenzhen In 1H/2021, supported by the strong rebound of the local economy and the rapid development of New Economy in the city, leasing demand of the Shenzhen Grade A office market remained robust, as it has since end-2020. As a result, the citywide semi-annual net take-up hit a new peak in the post-pandemic period, increasing from 369,062 sq m in 2H/2020 to 447,022 sq m in 1H/2021 and contributing 46.0% to the regional market digestion. During 1H/2021, TMT, finance, professional services and retail and trade continued to be the demand engines. By the end of 1H/2021, the citywide vacancy rate decreased by 1.5 ppts HoH to 26.4%. Guangzhou The Guangzhou office leasing market has experienced a significant rebound since the beginning of 2021 as it continued to see an increasing volume of new setup and expansion demand from multiple industries. In 1H/2021, TMT giants, foreign and domestic financial institutions and some domestic leading retail and trade companies all showed strong commitments in taking up office space in Guangzhou, particularly in Pazhou and Zhujiang New Town. Although the market was disrupted again by a small outbreak of COVID-19 in June, the semi-annual net takeup still aggregated to a three-year peak of 264,203 sq m, and the citywide vacancy rate decreased by 0.5 of a ppt HoH to 8.2%, the lowest in the GBA. Foshan Foshan's GDP reached RMB1 trillion for the first time in 2020, and manufacturing still contributed most to the local economy. This shaped the financial and real estate enterprises-led characteristics of its office market tenant profile as local manufacturing companies were more likely to set up offices in their factories. However, many local manufacturing companies chose to set up or relocate their headquarter offices in Grade A office buildings to attract high-quality employees recently. This, in turn, generated some new leasing demand for the Grade A office leasing market. Partly benefitting from this and a mild recovery of other demand generators, the citywide vacancy rate edged down 0.7 of a ppt HoH to 36.9%. savills.com.cn/research 7 The Greater Bay Area Grade A Office Index The Greater Bay Area Grade A Office Total Occupancy Cost Economic Structure Comparison By City, Q1/2021 Hong Kong Beijing Shanghai Shenzhen Guangzhou Zhuhai Foshan Zhongshan Dongguan Huizhou Jiangmen Zhaoqing 0 150 300 450 600 750 RMB per sq m per month Note: Shanghai and Beijing’s data is presented for reference; Hong Kong’s total occupancy cost has been calculated under the exchange rate as of March 2021. Source: Savills Research, 2021 Total Occupancy Cost, 1H/2021 Hong Kong 674.2 557.0 44.6 72.7 Dongguan 66.4 57.0 Inclusive 9.4 Shenzhen 211.3 183.6 Inclusive 27.6 Foshan 72.6 54.6 Inclusive 18.0 Guangzhou 194.2 163.6 Inclusive 30.7 Huizhou 63.9 57.4 Inclusive 6.5 Zhuhai 114.6 93.2 Inclusive 21.4 Jiangmen 55.7 46.1 Inclusive 9.6 Zhongshan 71.9 62.8 Inclusive 9.2 Zhaoqing 45.4 40.2 Inclusive 5.3 Net Effective Rent (RMB per sq m per month) Related Tax (RMB per sq m per month) Management Fee (RMB per sq m per month) Beijing 375.7 341.3 Inclusive 34.4 Shanghai 258.8 223.5 Inclusive 35.3 Note: The total occupancy cost is a lump sum cost of net effective rent, property management fee, and related taxes. Hong Kong’s total occupancy cost has been calculated under the exchange rate as of March 2021. Source: Local Bureau of Statistics, Census and Statistics Department, HKSAR, Statistics and Census Service, Macau SAR, Savills Research, 2021 Total Occupancy Cost HoH Change By City, 1H/2021 Zhuhai Jiangmen Dongguan Huizhou Guangzhou Foshan Zhongshan Hong Kong Shenzhen Zhaoqing -4% -3% -2% -1% 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% Source: Savills Research, 2021 8 savills.com.cn/research The Greater Bay Area Grade A Office Index RMB per sq m per month Total Occupancy Cost By City, 1H/2009 - 1H/2021 900 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 1H 2H 1H 2H 1H 2H 1H 2H 1H 2H 1H 2H 1H 2H 1H 2H 1H 2H 1H 2H 1H 2H 1H 2H 1H 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Hong Kong Huizhou GBA Source: Savills Research, 2021 Guangzhou Zhaoqing Shenzhen Foshan Zhongshan Jiangmen Dongguan Zhuhai In the context of the lasting COVID-19 pandemic, most landlords in the GBA were willing to make compromises to qualified from the tenants’ perspective, it was a good time for them to optimise their leasing strategies by reviewing the total occupancy costs and site selections. The total occupancy costs in seven cities out of ten within the GBA, including core cities of Hong Kong, Shenzhen and Guangzhou, fell by 2.2%, 2.2% and 1.0%, respectively, during 1H/2021. By contrast, the three cities of Zhuhai, Jiangmen and Dongguan witnessed a respective increase of 1.7%, 1.3% and 1.1% in total occupancy costs, mainly resulting from the new supply with higher building specifications asking higher rents amid positive economic prospects and pushing average rents up as a consequence. Tenant’s Cost-saving Intention Continued Amidst Global Economic Uncertainties Given that the global marketplace is still full of uncertainties and midway through an economic recovery, many enterprises across the GBA called for an optimisation in budget control and internal resource allocation, either by reducing their rental thresholds or downsizing leasing areas. The economic recovery in the GBA is still shaky considering the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic. For example, the new wave of COVID-19 infections that occurred in Guangzhou, Shenzhen, Foshan and Dongguan from May to June temporarily stalled the market recovery. Tenants preferred to remain cautious and risk-averse in hopes of juggling quality office building and affordable rents when selecting a new office site. Quality Tenant Took More Advantages in Lowering Occupancy Cost Many landlords, realising the importance of tenant portfolio management for improving asset performance, became increasingly selective on tenants. Therefore, despite most landlords continuing their existing strategies of lowering rents in exchange for occupancy, they were inclined to provide more flexibility and concessions in rental negotiation with quality tenants, including bellwether companies and unicorn start-ups. The Total Occupancy Cost Gap Between Hong Kong and Other Cities Narrowed Despite that Hong Kong continued to lead the GBA in terms of the total occupancy cost by the end of 1H/2021, the gap between Hong Kong and other GBA mainland cities narrowed significantly as Hong Kong’s overall rent has been on a downward trajectory from the start of 2019. Against the backdrop of COVID-19, the total occupancy cost in Hong Kong was 3.0 times higher than Shenzhen and 13.9 times higher than Zhaoqing by the end of 1H/2021, smaller than the results from two years ago of 3.6 times and a full 16 times, respectively. On a positive note, however, occupancy costs of Hong Kong’s prime office projects still led the GBA and even the Asia Pacific region. Emerging Submarkets Became Many Tenants’ Popular Cost-effective Alternatives Emerging submarkets appeared to be an ideal and rational option for enterprises seeking a balance between quality office building and cost-saving rental expectations, especially in core cities. This was best exemplified by Qianhai in Shenzhen and Pazhou in Guangzhou, both of which saw a surge in the leasing demand during 1H/2021 with a net take-up of more than 100,000 sq m. Another example was Kowloon West in Hong Kong, which saw relatively cheap rent and more stable market performance as it reported fewer corporate closures or downsizings in 1H/2021 compared to that in core submarkets.. savills.com.cn/research 9 The Greater Bay Area Grade A Office Index The Greater Bay Area Grade A Office Market Cycle Analysis LATE UPSWING GBA Grade A Office Market Cycle, 1H/2021 Hong Kong Guangzhou Shenzhen Zhuhai Dongguan Foshan Zhongshan Huizhou Zhaoqing EARLY DOWNSWING LATE DOWNSWING Jiangmen EARLY UPSWING Late Downswing Nine out of 10 GBA cities entered the late downswing cycle in 1H/2021, except for Jiangmen. This was a notable improvement, compared to 1H/2020, mainly attributed to the recovering economics and the resilience of market development. Although most cities were still facing oversupply and subdued rental growth, office landlords’ sentiments improved, and rents stabilised. Early Upswing Contrasting to the above cities, Jiangmen was the only city within the GBA that moved into the early upswing cycle. This was largely because of the higher building specifications of new projects, the recovering economy and office leasing demand in the locality. Jiangmen Zhaoqing Huizhou Zhuhai Shenzhen 10 savills.com.cn/research The Greater Bay Area Grade A Office Index Outlook The economic outlook for China and the GBA is expected to remain cautiously optimistic. Despite the disruption of COVID-19, the GDP of China (excluding Hong Kong and Macao) managed to grow by 2.3% YoY in 2020 and is expected to rebound by approximately 8.5% YoY in 2021, according to the National Statistics Bureau and the Chinese Academy of Sciences. Meanwhile, the GDP of the GBA also increased by 3% in 2020. More importantly, the regional GDP is projected to expand by 1.8 times from 2020 to 2030. Despite the small outbreak of COVID-19 in several areas in Guangzhou, Shenzhen, Dongguan and Foshan during Q2/2021, the pattern of economic recovery is expected to remain undisturbed, supported by the strong resilience of the Chinese economy and, more fundamentally, the rapid development of the New Economy. The GBA office market, in general, continues to see growth in leasing and purchasing demand. While this should, to a greater extent, render extra support to the leasing market, oversupply remains a concern as the GBA office market will continue to expand sizably in 2H/2021. The GBA office rental index is anticipated to edge down continually in 2H/2021. The positive economic performance and the resurgence of investment activities in the mainland have enhanced most landlords’ confidence, in turn strengthening the growth in sales prices. The trend will be solidified further, with a continued increase in the volume of investment inquiry and project scrutinising, and the overall GBA price index is expected to maintain its upward trend in the next six months. CONTACT US 谢靖宇 Carlby Xie Director, Head of Savills Southern China Research TEL: +8620 3665 4874 E-mail: carlby.xie@savills.com.cn 黎青山 Sam Lai Senior Director, Head of Savills Southern China Commercial TEL: +8620 3665 4830 E-mail: sam.lai@savills.com.cn savills.com.cn/research 11 GLOBAL HEADQUARTERS 全球总部 Savills – London 第一太平戴维斯 伦敦 Mark Ridley Group Chief Executive Officer 第一太平戴维斯全球首席执行官 Tel: 44 020 7499 8644 E-mail: mridley@savills.com CHINA 中国 Savills – China 第一太平戴维斯 中国 Siu Wing Chu 朱兆荣 Chief Executive Officer, China 第一太平戴维斯中国区首席执行官 Tel: 86 21 6391 6688 E-mail: siuwing.chu@savills.com.cn Savills – Shanghai 第一太平戴维斯 上海 Siu Wing Chu 朱兆荣 Chief Executive Officer, China 第一太平戴维斯中国区首席执行官 Tel: 86 21 6391 6688 E-mail: siuwing.chu@savills.com.cn Savills – Beijing 第一太平戴维斯 北京 Anthony McQuade 麦安东 Managing Director, Northern China 第一太平戴维斯华北区董事长 Tel: 86 10 5925 2288 E-mail: anthony.mcquade@savills.com.cn Savills – Guangzhou 第一太平戴维斯 广州 Alvin Lau 刘蔚海 Deputy Managing Director, Southern China Managing Director, Savills Guangzhou 第一太平戴维斯华南区副董事长 广州董事总经理 Tel: 86 20 3665 4800 E-mail: alvin.lau@savills.com.cn Savills – Shenzhen 第一太平戴维斯 深圳 Woody Lam 林木雄 Managing Director, Southern China 第一太平戴维斯华南区董事长 Tel: 86 755 8436 7000 E-mail: woody.lam@savills.com.cn Savills – Chengdu 第一太平戴维斯 成都 Eric Wo 胡裕 华 Managing Director, Western China 第一太平戴维斯华西区董事长 Tel: 86 28 6737 3737 E-mail: eric.wo@savills.com.cn Savills – Nanjing 第一太平戴维斯 南京 Jeremy Sun 孙 维 General Manager, Savills Nanjing 第一太平戴维斯南京公司总经理 Tel: 86 25 5772 0903 E-mail: jeremy.sun@savills.com.cn Savills – Hangzhou 第一太平戴维斯 杭州 Anson Chan 陈 昆 葳 General Manager, Savills Hangzhou 第一太平戴维斯杭州公司总经理 Tel: 86 571 8102 0222 E-mail: anson.chan@savills.com.cn Savills – Wuhan 第一太平戴维斯 武汉 Thomas Ng 伍 嘉 乐 Managing Director, Savills Wuhan 第一太平戴维斯武汉公司董事长 Tel: 86 27 5930 5566 E-mail: thomas.ng@savills.com.cn Savills – Changsha 第一太平戴维斯 长沙 Rebecca Hu 胡博飞 General Manager, Savills Changsha 第一太平戴维斯长沙公司总经理 Tel: 86 731 8987 0177 E-mail: rebecca.hu@savills.com.cn Savills – Tianjin 第一太平戴维斯 天津 Andy Chee 岐 晓 弟 General Manager, Savills Tianjin 第一太平戴维斯天津公司总经理 Tel: 86 22 5830 8877 E-mail: andy.chee@savills.com.cn Savills – Dalian 第一太平戴维斯 大连 Lily Wei 魏 丽 萍 Associate Director, Property & Asset Management Services, Savills Dalian 第一太平戴维斯大连公司 物业及资产管理部助理董事 Tel: 86 411 3966 8988 E-mail: lily.wei@savills.com.cn Savills – Shenyang 第一太平戴维斯 沈阳 Johnny Jiang 姜华 Deputy General Manager, Agency, Savills Shenyang 第一太平戴维斯沈阳公司副总经理 Tel: 86 24 8398 5066 E-mail: johnny.jiang@savills.com.cn Savills – Xiamen 第一太平戴维斯 厦门 Woody Lam 林木雄 Managing Director, Southern China 第一太平戴维斯华南区董事长 Tel: 86 755 8436 7000 E-mail: woody.lam@savills.com.cn Savills - Zhuhai 第一太平戴维斯 珠海 Steven Liu 刘晓南 General Manager, Savills Zhuhai 第一太平戴维斯珠海公司总经理 Tel: 86 756 862 2600 E-mail: stevenxn.liu@savills.com.cn Savills – Haikou 第一太平戴维斯 海口 Cindy Wu 吴欣欣 General Manager, Savills Haikou 第一太平戴维斯海口公司总经理 Tel: 86 898 3638 4200 E-mail: cindy.wu @savills.com.cn Savills – Fuzhou 第一太平戴维斯 福州 Woody Lam 林木雄 Managing Director, Southern China 第一太平戴维斯华南区董事长 Tel: 86 755 8436 7000 E-mail: woody.lam@savills.com.cn Savills – Chongqing 第一太平戴维斯 重庆 Andy Lau 刘奕兴 General Manager, Savills Chongqing 第一太平戴维斯重庆公司总经理 Tel: 86 23 8900 3000 E-mail: andy.lau@savills.com.cn Savills – Xi’an 第一太平戴维斯 西安 Dave Law 罗元均 General Manager, Savills Xi’an 第一太平戴维斯西安公司总经理 Tel: 86 29 8187 2288 E-mail: dave.law@savills.com.cn A real estate industry leader established over 160 years ago. 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