Direct sales is the new business model for EV start-ups: Following Tesla's direct sales initiative, and with traditional OEMs such as Daimler and Volkswagen intention to opt for direct sales, the market has been questioning whether third-party dealers are still needed in the EV era. We expect the profit pool for the entire China dealer industry to shrink, but we believe EV evolution could accelerate dealer consolidation, bringing higher ROE to top dealers under the agency models while proving challenging to the laggards.
Transition from ICE franchise to EV agency model reduces dealer service content but improves ROE: We expect the direct sales model, including self and agent operated, to become the major distri-bution method for EV makers by 2025, accounting for 50-60% of total EV sales and 20-30% of total auto sales in 2025, vs. the current franchise model. Total service content and thus profit pool for new car sales from third-party dealers will shrink moderately, as OEMs will also share profit in distribution and after-sales service via self-op-erated stores, and dealers are unlikely to earn auto finance/insurance commission income if customers place orders directly with OEMs. We believe the agent-operated direct sales model will gain popu-larity over self-operated, as the agency model best aligns the inter-ests of OEMs (direct customer access for future software revenue opportunities) and dealers (earn service revenue with higher ROE in an asset-light way). The agency model could benefit the surviving dealers, as it: 1) lowers upfront capex; 2) offers higher new car com-mission rates / gross margins; and 3) saves finance cost, since no need to hold inventory.
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