We forecast the S&P 500 index will end 2024 at 4700, representing a 12-monthprice gain of 5% and a total return of 6% including dividends. Our baselineassumption during the next year is the US economy continues to expand at amodest pace and avoids a recession, earnings rise by 5%, and the valuation of theequity market equals 18x, close to the current P/E level. Our forecast falls slightlybelow the typical 8% return during presidential election years. At this time next year,portfolio
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