The global business cycle has surprised many on the upside (Chart 1). In the US, GDP in the first quarter of 2024 grew by 1.6% annualized (the quarter-on-quarter (QoQ) growth rate multiplied by four, so 0.4% QoQ), down from 3.4% annualized in the fourth quarter (Q4) of 2023 (Chart 2). While that does suggest some loss of momentum, it is important to note that the year-on-year (YoY) evolutions were 3.1% in Q4 2023, and almost imperceptibly slower at 3.0% in Q1 2024. This solid performance
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